Who Will Win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Beholder vs. Songbird vs. Stellar Wind

By: Claudia L. Ruiz

A multiple Eclipse Award-winning champion, an undefeated 3-year-old filly, and a much improved 4-year-old, hungry for another win; Beholder, Songbird and Stellar Wind will hook up in just a few hours to determine who is the best in the $2,000,000 Gr.2 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, presented by Longines.

As we make our way through the Friday card of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup World Championships, there’s an unsettling feeling in the air. The day has finally come for these three superstars to battle it out on the biggest stage in the sport, and emotions are running high. But there’s more to this feeling than just some good old competiton. By the end of today, one of the three aforementioned will make the final start of her career. Today, before flying out east to her new home at Spendthrift Farm, win or lose, Beholder will take her final steps on a racing surface before a packed grandstand of adoring fans.

It’s hard for me to come to terms with the fact that such an inspirational mare will never race for us again; but, perhaps, what is even harder is imagining one of the two scenarios that will play out in the Distaff. Beholder will either go out a champion or wrap-up an impressive career with a loss — and the latter would be devastating. Both scenarios are more than possible.

It’s hard for me to imagine Songbird losing this race, simply because she is such a phenomenal mover. She will break from the rail, but her ground covering stride should keep her out of trouble leaving the gate. To add to that, whether you want to admit it or not, she has never shown sign of weakness in any of her prior starts — not even in the Coaching Club American Oaks, when she flattered Carina Mia by making her feel like she actually had a shot of winning and then left her behind in the blink of an eye. So, why on earth would she fall apart today? I’ve been saying she would outrun Beholder since the question was asked months ago, and I’m sticking to it today. I just can’t wrap my head around her losing here.

Stellar Wind is a bit of a different story. She’s coming off two narrow wins against Beholder, and will have to deal with Beholder to her outside. In both of her prior wins, she has pressed her foe on the rail, but she won’t have that advantage today — and this could be a determining factor. while I think Stellar Wind is a very talented filly, I’m just not a fan of her in this race. Maybe she’ll prove me wrong.

And then there is Beholder. I would love nothing more than to see her go out with a bang, but the odds are stacked against her. She’s not the same Beholder she was last year, and her two competitors will require her to run back to 2015 form if she wants this win.

There are days that you just want to come to an end, and there are days you never want to end. Can you guess which one today is? Hearts are heavy; thoughts conflicting, and win or lose, tears are bound to be shed at the culmination of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Good luck to all running, and thank you Beholder for making these last couple of years so truly memorable.