Suburban Handicap and Los Al Derby Picks

Suburban Handicap & Los Al Derby Picks and Analysis

A slightly different format than our usual Maiden and the Mad Capper, this analysis combines the Suburban Handicap with the Los Al Derby due to the short fields drawn. Contenders are marked in color according to the race they will run; Suburban Handicap contenders in red and Los Al Derby contenders in Blue. Picks for each race are at the bottom. Good luck this weekend!

Suburban Handicap (G2) – Belmont Park (NY)

Date: Saturday, July 4th Post Time: 5:11 PM (ET) Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt) Purse: $500,000

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

Los Alamitos Derby (G2) – Los Alamitos Race Course (CA)

Date: Saturday, July 4th Post Time: 8:43 PM (ET) Distance: 1 1/8 mile (dirt) Purse: $350,000

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1) Tonalist – There’s nothing more that this son of Tapit likes than stretching his long legs over Big Sandy. Tonalist is extremely versatile in running style and, until recently, he was undefeated at Belmont Park, but don’t hold that last start against him. This is a colt that thrives at the mile and a quarter and the Metropolitan Handicap (1 mile) was simply too short for him in a field made up of mile-favoring horses. I find the jockey switch interesting, to say the least. For the first time in a long time Joel Rosario was not in the irons last time out and he won’t be in the irons this time either. John Velazquez could have chosen to ride Coach Inge, but has opted for Tonalist instead. The Weather Channel predicts a 62% chance of showers this Saturday afternoon for the Suburban, and you know what rain means — romp! Still, even without the rain, he towers over this field. Blinkers come off for this race, so expect him to be very tactical.

1) Gimme da Lute – The replay of the Affirmed (G3) is a good one to watch to get an idea of what this colt will do going an extra sixteenth of a mile on Saturday. The son of Midnight Lute sat comfortably in third before running at Prospect Park on the stretch and edging him out by a half length — and, if you pay close attention, you’ll notice he wasn’t slowing down and galloped out with his ears pricked forward. I’m not concerned with the distance and I don’t see him finishing worse than second. This colt’s daddy stuck to sprints and veered away from routing trips, while grand sire Real Quiet finished first in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness of ’98 before losing the Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown by a nose to Victory Gallop. And so the story goes that stamina is passed on through the dam. If that’s the case, it’s not looking too hot for the Baffert-trained runner. Dam’s sire Proud Citizen ran a game second in the Kentucky Derby of ’02, but couldn’t quite catch War Emblem and finished four lengths behind. He later went on to third and fifth place finishes in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, respectively. It’s a lot of history; regardless, I still like Gimme da Lutes chances based on what I’ve seen.

The Nobles:

1) Effinex – If you were at Belmont on June 6th, and you paid attention to the Brooklyn Invitational, you’ll recall a horse bolting on the second turn. Sure enough, that horse was Effinex, who mentally checked out of the race by dragging his jock to the outside rail, throwing his head up and running away from the bit. This son of Mineshaft has already run this distance and won by three-quarters in the Excelsior Stakes (G3), back in April, with Angel Arroyo aboard. Well, Junior Alvarado will hold the reins this time out and will hopefully give him a better trip. He looked aggravated running in close quarters with the other horses and his jock manhandling his mouth, so I’ll toss his last start out the window. I predict he will be closer to the back in this short field, which shouldn’t be an issue with his quick turn of foot. His 107 Beyer speed figure is the highest in the field and, looking back, he beat Wicked Strong, who beat Tonalist on not one but two different occasions. As long as he doesn’t take off again, the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt may just be able to give Tonalist a run for the money in this year’s Suburban.

2) Coach Inge – So Coach Inge has never run the Suburban’s 1 ¼ mile distance, but he has run and won going 1 ½ and he beat last year’s Travers winner, VE Day, by a neck. He ran a very solid race in the Brooklyn Invitational considering it was his graded stakes debut. The early fractions set were about half to one second slower than those set by Tonalist in last year’s Belmont Stakes; however, Coach Inge ran the last quarter of a mile in 23.96 as opposed to Tonalist’s 26.09, 02.14 seconds faster — that’s a pretty big difference. I think he’s capable of challenging the king here, but if he can’t run past him, he should be good for second and at worst third. For a son of Big Brown, he certainly holds his own at route distance.

1) Prospect Park – Running second to Dortmund in the San Felipe Stakes is not an accomplishment to overlook by any means. I heard a lot of great things from owners that had seen the colt run earlier in the year and there was talks that he had potential to be a Kentucky Derby horse. Unfortunately, he didn’t make the cut, but he’s hit the board in all three graded stakes races and has faced talented horses. Last time out in the Affirmed, Prospect Park rallied against Gimme da Lute, coming up half a length short after some hot early fractions. This son of Tapit will have to run an extra sixteenth of a mile in the Los Al Derby and I’m not so sure he’ll be able to outrun this field’s king. Watch his gallop out in the replay of the Affirmed; for starters, he idled before he even hit the wire and then went on with his ears pinned back. Two starts back, he ran this distance in the Santa Anita Derby and with almost identical early fractions he couldn’t quite keep up and finished fourth. He was lugging himself to hold it and looked really exhausted, so I’m not inclined to think he wants to go 1 1/8.

2) Kentuckian – The late starter for Jerry Hollendorfer showed a lot of promise in his graded stakes debut, last time out in the Lazaro Barrera Stakes. The colt, by Tiznow, ran three wide on the turn and went on to win by 6 ¼ lengths under a modest hand ride for Hall of Famer Mike Smith. No, he’s never run this distance, but he was moving forward with ease last time out after blazing hot fractions and he wasn’t even all out. Nine furlongs is a step up from seven, but I don’t think it’s too much for him to handle. His sire was a multiple Eclipse award winning horse that was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2009. Tiznow won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 and 2001 and was great going route distance. Kentuckian’s dam’s sire, Unbridled’s Song, was also great at the 1 1/8 mile distance, so I don’t see why the colt wouldn’t follow in their footsteps. The only concern is that the pace may be a little too hot for this baby, but if he sits chilly and stalks in third I think we’ll be in for a treat.

The Knights:

1) Mylute – The 5th place finisher in the 2013 Kentucky Derby recently switched over to the Todd Pletcher barn, and won his last time out going one mile. Pay very close attention to his past performances; this is a horse that shows preference for races no longer than a mile and change. Mylute has won three of his last twelve starts, all of which were optional claimers and against sub par competition. The five-year-old by Midnight Lute has yet to capture a graded stakes win and his most recent works have done little to impress.

2) Street Babe – This son of Street Sense has run against some top tier horses in his last three starts. He was very much outclassed in the Charles Town Classic (G2) and ran a real clunker last out in the Mountainview Hanidcap. Street Babe is the least experienced and has the second lowest Beyer (95) of the bunch. Winning the Mineshaft (G3) back in February was a nice resume builder for the gelding, but the toughest competitor he beat was Mystery Train and, to make matters worse, Street Babe’s Beyer last time out plummeted to a 63, which makes me wonder what in the world Joel Rosario sees in this one. 20-1 seems a tad short for this long-shot that has never set foot over Big Sandy.

3) Pain and Misery- The grandson of Seeking the Gold has hit the board in his last three starts, two of which were graded stakes. He dropped down in class from a grade three to a listed stakes for 55K and, while he did win, his 71 Beyer doesn’t quite make me jump for joy when comparing him to the others in this field. Even more daunting is the fact that he ran fourth to Firing Line in the Sunland Derby, but he got smoked by 17 lengths… yikes. Lacks kick and perhaps a little bit of fire as well.

The Peasants:

1) Neck ‘n Neck – The son of Flower Alley has, unfortunately, never donned any flowers as he has failed to win anything significant, and anything since November of 2012. Three starts back, he ran second to Protonico in the Ben Ali (G3), but he was five lengths behind and lacked the kick to pose any sort of threat. Now, nothing against Protonico, but he’s no Tonalist and that being said, Neck ‘n Neck is really going to have to step up his game here — like, REALLY step up his game. He’s got some class, but in my opinion he lacks two very important qualities of a top racehorse: grit and heart.

2) Follow Me Crev – The head-scratcher in this year’s Los Al Derby. The son of Quality Road has yet to run the distance and while he’s run over all three surfaces, he’s failed to win anything since January — a 30k maiden claimer against no one. Two starts back in allowance company he put up an 80 Beyer, but coming off the turf, never having run against stakes caliber horses, Follow Me Crev is incredibly outclassed.

Suburban H. Top Picks:

#6 – Tonalist #2 – Coach Inge #5 – Effinex

Trifecta Box: 6-2-5
Exacta: 6/2,3,5

Los Al Derby Top Picks:

#4 – Kentuckian #2 – Gimme da Lute #5 – Prospect Park

Trifecta Box: 5-2-4
Exacta: 2, 4 / 5

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