Preakness Stakes Picks and Analysis

This year’s Kentucky Derby winner, American Pharoah returns to horse racing’s big stage to battle it out once again with Derby runner-up Firing Line and third place finisher Dortmund, in this Saturday’s 140th running of the Preakness Stakes. A short field of eight colts are slated to break from the starting gate and, among them, are newcomers Bodhisattva and Tale of Verve. American Pharoah highlights this year’s field as the 4-5 morning line favorite. Will he become the 24th horse to capture the first two legs of the Triple Crown? Let’s take a closer look.

Preakness Stakes 140 – Pimlico

Date: Saturday, May 16th Post Time: 6:18 PM (ET) Distance: 1 3/16 mile (dirt) Purse: $1,500,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1) American Pharoah – The Kentucky Derby winner got the short end of the stick drawing the rail in this year’s eight horse Preakness field. The good news is American Pharoah is a fast colt and his speed should allow him to shoot out to the front before getting caught on the rail by the seven horses to his right. The bad news is the T-Rex (Dortmund) is breaking right next to him, and while some may be quick to say the stablemates will look out for each other, lets not forget this is still horse racing—anything can happen. Additionally, Victor Espinoza has shown disliking towards the rail in several past races aboard different horses, and that makes me a little leery. With that said, Espinoza cannot hesitate. He’s going to have to send Pharoah out fast and he’s going to have to run faster than hoped for. A gate to wire win is not out of the question for this son of Pioneerof the Nile. He’s got the talent to run well, but the question is does he have the stamina to run back just two short weeks after the Kentucky Derby. Excessive use of the whip may have won him his last race, but did it take too much out of him? If he’s able to break clean and fast, American Pharoah will become the 24th horse to sweep the first two legs of the Triple Crown, giving us hope of ending the 37-year-drought. My gut feeling is telling me he’s got this, but the little voice in my head can’t help but worry. Let’s hope we see less of the whip this time around.

2) Dortmund – A perfect record tainted by a third place finish in this year’s Kentucky Derby, Dortmund may not have come out on top on the first Saturday in May, but he sure fought to hold on in the last furlong—and considering his condition, that says a lot about his character. The son of Big Brown set the early fractions in the Derby (23.24, 47.34, 1:11.29) and seemingly caught some heat from bettors disappointed that he could not win putting up such moderate numbers. The final time of 2:03.02 was anything but fast, but the track was dead and the wind on the backstretch was blowing pretty hard. These are all things to take into consideration. He looked tired in that last sixteenth of a mile, and he had every reason to be. Ten days prior to the race, a bout with colic was severe enough to alarm his connections, and gastrointestinal complications weigh too much on performance for me to simply discard them here. Dortmund appears to have put on some weight in the two weeks leading up to the Preakness, he’s been training well and his Thoro-Pattern indicates he’s sitting on a big run. As long as he’s physically on his A-game, he’s going to run well and distance should not be a concern. The chestnut colt has not shown preference to breaking left when coming out of the gate, so wiping American Pharoah out is not as likely as that time Bayern wiped out Shared Belief—I’m just saying. However, this monster still poses a threat to the favorite, and as long as he’s healthy, Dortmund will be out to get even.

The Nobles:

1) Firing Line – Being dubbed the Alydar of 2015 isn’t as much a compliment as it is an insult when referring to the Triple Crown races. Alydar was a superb horse, but he suffered from a severe case of seconditis in the Triple Crown of 1978, unable to catch Affirmed despite three very gallant efforts. Now, I think it’s a bit too early for us to be calling Firing Line, Alydar. Let’s at least give him one more shot. The colt finished second and just one length behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby, so no matter how you go about it, there is absolutely no denying this son of Line of David put forth tremendous effort on the biggest stage in thoroughbred racing. He gave us a thrilling stretch drive, but flattened out right before the wire. Maybe that was his best, or maybe he’s sitting on his biggest performance yet, going into the Preakness fully loaded. According to Thoro-Graph, Firing Line’s thoro-pattern is only getting better, so I’ll go with the latter. He’s fast, he’s tactical and he’s definitely got heart. If the Derby was a bit too long, Saturday’s 1 3/16 miles is precisely the distance this colt needs to get even with his foes. Add the outside post and Gary Stevens into the mix, and this combo is too good to pass up.

The Knights:

1) Danzig Moon – Regular jockey Julien Leparoux piloted this handsome son of Malibu Moon to a fifth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Mark Casse and assistant trainer Norman Casse have spent quite a bit of time working with Danzig Moon, and while the original plan never included the first two legs of the Triple Crown, they sure got themselves quite a horse. Some bumping around last time out, may have cost him a better finish, but he still ran well and I think he’s going to like this distance. His 95 Beyer is about average in this field, so it won’t be easy, but it also won’t be impossible.

2) Diving Rod – The dark bay colt, by Tapit, has yet to run worse that third. Of his five career starts, Diving Rod has hit the board each time (2-wins, 1-second, 2-thirds) and he ran third to Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby—the toughest field he’s faced, thus far. His 98 Beyer is encouraging and he won by three lengths, last time out. However, this time he’ll be going 1/8 of a mile farther and he’ll have Javier Castellano in the irons instead of Julien Leparoux. As far as running style goes, the pace of this year’s Preakness looks to be a little hot and Diving Rod seems to favor setting or stalking the pace. If he sets the pace or attempts to duel with one of the speedsters, he’s going to lose the battle, big time. And even if he runs his eye balls out, anything better than third sounds too far fetched.

3) Mr. Z – Corey Nakatani hops back on this son of Malibu Moon after a spill sidelined him from riding Mr. Z in the Louisiana Derby. In an attempt to figure out why he wasn’t quite winning, trainer D. Wayne Lukas removed Mr. Z’s blinkers—and that definitely backfired. Let’s be real here, the colt has 13 career starts and only one of those resulted in a win, 12 starts ago in his very first race, last June at Churchill Downs. Since then, his former connections (Zayat Stables) went above and beyond to make him comfortable—fixing teeth, changing jocks, blinkers off, blinkers on, you name it, they probably did it. Yet, one year later and the best Mr. Z can do is run third. He hasn’t stopped working in 11 months, and new owners Calumet Farms insist on giving him a shot in the Preakness. Maybe I’m completely wrong, and maybe he’ll flat out romp… or maybe he’ll pmor— that’s romp, spelled backwards. Get it? What I’m trying to say is I won’t be holding my breath. For a colt his age, the problem is very obvious to me. He needs time to mature because he just doesn’t quite get it, and that’s OK. Some horses need extra time to process things, drilling him isn’t going to make him run any better. Come on guys, give it a rest already!

The Peasants:

1) Bodhisattva –The colt, by Student Council, is 1-1 at Pimlico, winning last time out in the Federico Tesio. His last four starts have been stakes, but he hasn’t run against anyone worth mentioning. With 11 career starts, three wins, one second and four thirds, Bodhisattva is the second most experienced in the field. Do the amount of starts give him an advantage over the other colts? Certainly not. His past performances indicate he does best when setting or stalking the pace, and that tells me he’s in for a serious wake-up call. American Pharoah, Dortmund, Firing Line and Mr. Z are not the kind of colts who mess around—They’re the best of the best, they break track records and they pity no horse. Don’t bet him to win, but use him in your trifectas and superfectas.

2) Tale of Verve – If being outclassed does not make you question this colt’s participation here, perhaps his 72 Beyer speed figure will. Tale of Verve has six career starts, and only one win, and he has yet to face any decent competition. Even though this son of Tale of Ekati won last time out at Keeneland, going this exact distance, he only won by two lengths, against a weak field, and that is simply not enough. Joel Rosario is a great jock, but unfortunately, he can’t do the running for the horse.

Preakness Picks

8 – Firing Line #2 – Dortmund #1 – American Pharoah #4 – Danzig Moon #3 – Mr. Z

*Please note picks are not in any specific order.

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