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Kentucky Derby Top 10

By: Claudia L. Ruiz

With the field pretty much set for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take a look at each of the contenders in this year’s field. Below are my top 10 horses in the order that they rank on my list (1-10). Disclaimer: This list takes an in-depth look at the 10 horses which I believe are the strongest in the field, addressing running style, temperament, athletic ability and talent. This is not a list predicting the order of finish.

 

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  1. Nyquist (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, Forestry)

Running Style: Stalker/Mid-pack
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Nyquist has proven he can ship, handle traffic, run on a mildly sloppy track, set the pace, stalk, hang way off the pace, run in top company and win. In fact, I’ve never quite understood why people don’t give him the credit he deserves. This son of Uncle Mo is the real deal and he proved that in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In that race, we saw a side of him we had never seen before. Not only did he overcome a tough break, he overcame a very tough trip and he showed us he could do it running wide, off the pace like he’d never done. It was a tough race for any horse, let alone a 2-year-old, and he won it with the utmost of class.

So, here’s a horse that’s intelligent, adaptable and can keep his cool in the midst of chaos… these are the qualities of a top derby horse. The 1 ¼ mile distance of the derby is always a bit of a mystery, and I’m sure there are plenty of people out there that have tossed him out simply based on bloodlines. No, he’s not bred to go distance, but bloodlines aren’t everything. Going off his performance in the Florida Derby — by the way, swapping leads and zigzagging doesn’t mean he was tired… he won that race with minimal effort — I’m not too concerned about it. Same thing goes for post position; this is one colt that wastes no time at the gate. His early tactical speed should help him avoid traffic troubles. Having said that, the Kentucky Derby is a race of luck and the best horse doesn’t always win. Taking into consideration his body of work, Nyquist has been the most consistent of all, he’s been battle tested and, hands down, is the strongest contender in this 20 horse field.

View detailed photos of Nyquist’s trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to see what he overcame in that race.

  2. Mo Tom (Uncle Mo – Caroni, Rubiano)

Running Style: Closer
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Traffic troubles in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby have kept this son of Uncle Mo from hitting the board, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get there. Mo Tom’s powerful hind end, big stride and wicked tactical speed make him a top threat. The second he finds an opening he’s going to close like a freight train. Still have doubts? Watch the replay of the Louisiana Derby. Time wise, the incidents on the stretch cost Mo Tom roughly 7 seconds – that’s an eternity in horse racing and a lot of lost ground! The winner hit the wire 6 lengths ahead, just 1.2 seconds faster. Had he been clear, I’m positive Mo Tom would have won. Yes, he’s been very unlucky, but don’t leave him out! If there’s a time to get lucky it’s definitely on the first Saturday in May.

    3. Mohaymen (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, Dixie Union)

Running Style: Stalker/Mid-pack
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Toss out his performance, or lack thereof, in the Florida Derby. The heat got to him (think about it). Mohaymen enters the Kentucky Derby on a clean slate for me and I’m expecting him to bounce back big. He’s got all the qualities of a top athlete; speed, agility, guts and heart. And he’s not afraid to put himself in tight spots to get past foes – a common scenario in the derby.

Now, I’ve never been too crazy about this son of Tapit because I just don’t like the way he moves. My equestrian background has trained my eye to look for flaws that disrupt fluidity in movement and cause a horse to expend energy unnecessarily. Why am I mentioning this? Because Mohaymen’s high neck carriage does not allow him to use his body efficiently. One of the reasons Secretariat covered ground so well was because he used his entire body, tail to tip of nose, allowing the energy to flow through his body like a wave. When Mohaymen runs, he doesn’t use his neck, which doesn’t allow him to stretch out and actually creates resistance. This is the only negative I have here, but it’s kind of a big one. Traveling 1 ¼ miles he’s going to need to save all the energy he can for the stretch run, and I’m afraid he’s going to come up short because he’ll be working twice as hard fighting against himself.

    4. Gun Runner (Candy Ride – Quiet Giant, Giant’s Causeway)

Running Style: Stalker
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux

His performance in the Risen Star was admirable. Pacesetter Candy My Boy set some respectable early fractions (22.95, 46.38 and 1:11.33) and Gun Runner showed nothing but class running him down on the stretch, finishing just one second and change over the track record. This son of Candy Ride (ARG) has a reaching stride that’s easy on his forehand, elongates his neck and pokes out his nose. One of my favorite qualities in a horse is efficiency of movement because the better a horse moves the less energy he will waste. Gun Runner is a trooper who uses his body superbly – and he’s extremely gritty.

    5. Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft – Uchitel, Afleet Alex)

Running Style: Closer
Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Jockey: Luis Quinonez

What this colt did in the Southwest Stakes simply cannot be overlooked. Closing like a freight train, moving from 12th to first on the stretch, after relatively modest fractions (the half in 47.06 and six furlongs in 1:12.30), this son of Mineshaft made a mockery of every horse in the field, and he made it look way too easy. Jockey Luis Quinonez let a hot pace get away from him in the Rebel, leaving Suddenbreakingnews with way too much ground to make up way too late. Running big last out in the Arkansas Derby, he was 6-wide as they rounded the final turn and 7-wide as he closed on the stretch to finish second. If this colt can manage a rail trip in the derby, he’ll be golden. I suggest you watch the replay of the Southwest Stakes.

    6. Exaggerator (Curlin – Dawn Raid, Vindication)

Running Style: Closer
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Anyone that wasn’t on the Exaggerator bandwagon in early March probably jumped on after his romp in the Santa Anita Derby – it was very impressive. I can assure you, if it rains, this son of Curlin will be at the top of my ticket on May 7th. The question is, will he get the 1 ¼ mile on a fast track? I’m not super convinced. He made a bold move in the San Felipe that saw him go from last to second, but then he failed to close on Danzing Candy, and worse, he gave way to Mor Spirit and finished third. The fractions of that race were blistering, but the fractions of the Santa Anita Derby were actually faster at every call. So this is a colt that is going to NEED a hot pace and prefers a sloppy track. The Desormeaux brothers best be doing a rain dance daily. Something tells me we won’t be seeing a repeat of Exaggerator’s last performance if it stays dry.

    7. Creator (Tapit – Morena (PER), Privately Held)

Running Style: Mid-Pack/Closer
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

After breaking his maiden at Oaklawn on February 27th, this gray son of Tapit stepped up to take on the big boys in the Rebel and finished a respectable third. He was 5-6 wide on that last turn and kicked clear of the horses to his inside without a problem. The only difference between his trip in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby – aside from the distance – is that he managed to save ground on the second turn in the latter. Make a note that this colt is slow out of the gate and takes a bit to find his stride. Not a big deal, he doesn’t need to play bumper cars with the rest of the field up front. Creator is relatively new to stakes competition but he’s proven himself so well in his last two races that I can’t knock him for anything he’s done. He’s going to need pace, at least during the first half, which Danzing Candy is capable of setting. Other than that, he’s extremely gutsy and should relish the added distance.

    8. Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, Sahm)

Running Style: Closer
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez

His solid comeback in the Blue Grass Stakes put him back on the derby radar, and the fact that he’s returning to the track where he broke his maiden makes him look even better. Brody’s Cause has beat Exaggerator twice and faired third to Nyquist in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Now, sometimes he’s fast out of the gate and sometimes he’s not. If he hesitates, he tries to make up for it and then loses momentum a few strides out. This could be messy come Saturday as he risks getting bumped around like he did in the Tampa Bay Derby, and sustaining a blow at the start will likely take him out of contention. This colt is a pleaser that’s not afraid of a fight. Watch his expression in the Blue Grass as he rounds the final turn and rallies through the stretch – ears pinned, body fully extended. It wasn’t easy for him, but by golly he was determined to get there. He’s got heart, and he’s going to need it.

    9. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, Dixie Union)

Running Style: Mid-Pack
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Gary Stevens

There are quite a few people out there touting Mor Spirit’s horn in the derby. I am not one of those people. Win-less since early February, Mor Spirit has failed to impress me in all three of his preps this year. Sure, he won the Robert B. Lewis by 1 ½ lengths, but he beat a bunch of “also rans” that are nowhere near as talented as the horses in this field. Jockey Gary Stevens knows a thing or three about winning the Kentucky Derby, so consider him being aboard a major bonus. In my honest opinion, this colt lacks fire; he’s not a competitor. Will I single Mor Spirit? No. But I’ll definitely use him in exotics.

    10. Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect – Melody’s Spirit, by Scat Daddy)

Running Style: Mid-Pack
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Victor Espinoza

This chestnut son of Pleasantly Perfect is an absolute looker – I mean, drop dead gorgeous. Last out, he bobbled at the start and brushed up against a horse on the stretch, which may have cost him a tad in the end. Based on what he’s shown thus far, he lacks the tenacity that a derby winner needs to overcome the many challenges of the race. He’s finished behind Exaggerator once and Suddenbreakingnews twice, and though I’m not sure what it is, there’s something that has kept me from taking Whitmore out of my top 10. Trainer Ron Moquett says his last two trips have caused him to run much farther back than he prefers. So, as long as he can avoid the traffic jam, expect him to be closer to the pace this time – it might actually make a world of a difference.

    Last year’s analysis gave readers the superfecta. Take a look at it here 2015 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis