Betting Ambassador Christopher Ado Tackles the Kentucky Oaks

The defection of the undefeated Songbird from this year’s Kentucky Oaks has changed the complexion of the field. For example, Cathryn’s Sophia connections originally planned to enter her in the Eight Belles on the Oaks undercard but when Songbird was declared out her connections changed gears to point for the spring’s signature event for three-year old fillies. One way to handicap this year’s Kentucky Oaks is to identify the strength of the prep races towards this event. The Gr. 3 Fantasy, Gr. 2 Gazelle, Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes, Gr. 1 Santa Anita Oaks, and Gr. 2 Fair Grounds Oaks are where the main contingent of contenders exit and I strongly believe that the winner of this year’s Kentucky Oaks will exit the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes where the early pace and final time were excellent.

Horses Listed In Order of Post Position.

(1) TERRA PROMESSA: A homebred daughter of Curlin comes into the Kentucky Oaks on a four race win streak highlighted by victories in the Gr. 3 Honeybee and Fantasy Stakes at 1-1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park. Her four victories were at the 1-1/16 miles and have the foundation to stretch her stamina an extra 1/16th of a mile but one has to question the quality of opposition she has faced in her last two victories and circumstances of each win. In her Gr. 3 Honeybee victory, she was three wide between rivals into the first turn but eased back to stalk three-horse speed duel in fourth chasing an above average early pace thru the first six furlongs (designated by red TimeformUS pace figures). She moved up three wide around the far turn to take over the lead and kicked clear with a perfect trip to win by 6-½ lengths earning a career best 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite the margin of victory, this was not a strong field as five horses behind her all returned to lose their next start with the best finish being her stablemate, Nickname, who ran second beaten three-quarters of a length in the Gr. 3 Beaumont earning 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure at Keeneland. In her last victory, Gr. 3 Fantasy Stakes, she was hard to settle early throwing her head into the first turn and pulling jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. early. Once she settled, she moved up to press the leader Ready to Confess through moderate fractions, shook that rival into the stretch to open a two-length lead at mid-stretch, and was all out to win by a neck over stablemate Taxable earning another 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This race was not a strong field with the runner-up exiting a maiden and Allowance N1X victory in her previous two starts. She returns to Churchill Downs where her four race win streak started but the main question is she will face the stiffest competition in five starts as her best TimeformUS Race Ratings of 102 are significantly lower than the Oaks 112 Race Rating. She benefits from being drawn on the rail and with her tactical speed can save ground around both turns but she must settle better than she did last time out.

(2) WEEP NO MORE: The daughter of Mineshaft comes into the Kentucky Oaks with a three race win streak climaxed by her victory in the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 9. Prior to that victory, she rallied from next to last to win the SunCoast Stakes on February 13 at Tampa Bay Downs by 2-¾ lengths but one has to question the quality of this victory with the horses that returned from the SunCoast Stakes finished thirteenth, tenth, third, and fifth in their next starts. Although she earned a career best 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this victory, she looked overmatched versus the accomplishments of Cathryn Sophia, Rachel’s Valentina, and Carina Mia in the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes but she took advantage a perfect race set up and track surface favoring outside closers to score the 30-1 upset. The Rusty Arnold trainee showed no early speed as Carina Mia established a swift early pace with Rachel’s Valentina pressing her early through the first six furlongs. She remained in last as the field reached the top of the stretch, angled out, and rallied past the leaders Rachel’s Valentina and Cathryn Sophia to win by a neck earning a career top 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This victory was clearly pace aided as Carina Mia set above average early fractions for the 1-1/16 event and her rally was accomplished with strong outside closers bias (designed by the blue TimeformUS Race Rating). She is a perfect three-for-three around two turns but this closer must navigate a clean trip in this full field of fourteen three-year old fillies and after victories at 6-1, 13-1, and 30-1 she appears to be a underlay at her morning line of 9-2. She is one that is worth trying to beat.

(3) LEWIS BAY: The daughter of Bernardini will have no issue with the 1-⅛ distance as she is perfect from two starts. The Chad Brown trainee scored her first Graded Stakes victory in the Gr. 2 Demoiselle at today’s trip in her final start as a two-year old at Aqueduct. After this race, trainer Chad Brown and owner Alpha Delta Stables LLC planned out Lewis Bay’s campaign for the Kentucky Oaks and she returned from a ninety-one day layoff to make her three-year old debut in the Gr. 2 Davona Dale over a one-turn mile and she ran a respectable second beaten seven lengths by the previous unbeaten Cathryn Sophia in a race that was designed strictly as a prep. She trailed early racing between rivals, moved up in traffic into a very slow early pace (designated by blue TimeformUS pace figures), angled out four wide for clear run into the stretch, and rallied to get second but was never going to catch the favored winner earning a then career best 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The effort in the Davona Dale set her up perfectly for the Gr. 2 Gazelle where she scored a handy 1-½ length victory earning a career best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure with the aid of a perfect trip. She was placed three wide pressing a moderate early pace in the clear, moved up three wide on the far turn, cut loose to open up a 3-½ length lead mid-stretch, and was taken in hand the final seventy-yards to the wire as she switched leads more than once. The Gazelle was not a strong field as the runner-up, Royal Obsession, won a maiden and Allowance N1X, and third-place finisher, Mo D’ Amour, biggest victory was $125,000 Stakes over the inner track at Aqueduct which explains why TimeformUS gave this race a 105 Race Rating which is lower than the Kentucky Oaks 113 Race Rating. She is stepping up to face stiffer competition, but she loves the distance, has been pointed for this race, and has excellent tactical speed to work out a ground saving stalk and pounce trip in a race where TimeformUS projects will be run at a fast early pace with Go Maggie Go, Paolo Queen, and Rachel Valentina being part of that projected quick early pace.

(4) GO MAGGIE GO: This daughter of Ghostzapper is undefeated in two starts including her biggest victory in her second start, Gr. 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, over a sloppy main track on April 9 at Gulfstream Park. She defeated a “key” race field in her career debut on March 13 where the second, sixth, and eighth place finishers returned to win. The Dale Romans trainee validated that victory by returning twenty-days later to score the 4-1 upset in the Gulfstream Oaks in a race that lacked strong opposition. She prompted the early pace between Paola Queen and long shot Hold On Momma through moderate early fractions through the first six furlongs. Go Maggie Go poked her head in front midway on the far turn, shook free of a stubborn Paola Queen in deep stretch, and inched clear to win by 2-¼ lengths earning career best 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite its status as a Grade 2 event one has to question the quality of this race as the favorite, Off the Tracks, was unbeaten in three starts but those races were at distances from 5 to 6-½ furlongs. The quality of competition is a reason why Gulfstream Oaks only earned a 101 TimeformUS Race Rating which is lower than today’s Kentucky Oaks Race Rating of 113. She must deal with being drawn inside of Paola Queen again and the classy Rachel Valentina. Her pace pressing running style likely means she will either press or chase the quick early pace and fade through the stretch as a pace causality.

(5) DREAM DANCE: The daughter of Afleet Alex has managed to hit the board in three Graded Stakes event with the latest coming in the Gr. 2 Fair Grounds Oaks where she was a non-threatening second to the favorite Land Over Sea. In that race, she was guided over to the rail and trailed early as speed duel developed through quick early fractions to flatter her late kick. She continued to race on the rail into and around the far turn, split rivals in the stretch, found the rail in deep stretch, and rallied to catch the tired pace presser Adore to be non-threatening second inheriting a career best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was sent off as the 3-2 second choice in Allowance N1X at Keeneland on April 16 and it required the entire length of the stretch for her to get pass the leader Put The Blame on Me even though the latter drifted out badly through the stretch resulting in her being disqualified from second to third. This deep closer can pick up the pieces for a minor reward as her two previous placings in the Fair Grounds Oaks and Golden Rod indicate.

(6) MOKAT: The victim of Songbird’s dominance in the three-year old fillies stakes at Santa Anita during the winter where she rallied to finish third and second respectively in the Gr. 3 Santa Ysabel and Gr. 1 Santa Anita Oaks. In the former event, she was unable to keep pace with the favored uncontested gate to wire winner trailing the field in seventh early, began to pass rivals on the rail on the turn, angled off the inside into the stretch, and rallied to get up a non-threatening third. In the Santa Anita Oaks she trailed briefly, moved into fourth racing well off the rail down the backstretch, came out three wide into the stretch, and rallied to grab second over She’s A Warrior, a maiden after six career starts. The Uncle Mo filly is entered in this race for possible placings in a Grade 1 to enhance her status as a broodmare but realistically she will be served on the turf in the Edgewood Stakes for three-year old fillies one race earlier.

(7) MO D’AMOUR: The daughter of Uncle Mo has progressed slowly to start her three-year old campaign to the Kentucky Oaks beginning with a third beaten 10-½ lengths behind the favored gate to wire Constellation in the Ruthless Stakes January 17 over the inner track at Aqueduct. She received a confidence building victory in a one-mile Allowance N1X at Laurel Park where she outclassed her field to win by 4-¼ lengths. The Todd Pletcher trainee was entered in $125,000 Stakes on February 27 where she close to a very slow early pace and rallied to win by two-lengths over a “key” race field where the third-and-fifth place finishers came back to win. Mo D’Amour was unable to parlay that victory into a Graded Stakes score in the Gr. 2 Gazelle where she pressed a moderate early pace in the two path outside of second choice Clair de Lune, was outrun by the favored winner Lewis Bay into the far turn, and weakened to finish third. She does her best work when she is forwardly place stalking the pace within two lengths of the early lead but she is slower than her main rivals and TimeformUS pace projector sees her further off the pace than she is accustom to. Her two victories at a route where versus weak fields per TimeformUS Race Ratings and therefore she is overmatched in the Kentucky Oaks.

(8) ROYAL OBSESSION: $1.15 million dollar daughter of Tapit broke through with two victories from her first two starts before she stepped up in class in the Gr. 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes on February 20 where she suffered her first defeat finishing fourth beaten 1-¾ lengths but her effort is much better than the 3-4w turns, 5-wide into lane comment found in your Daily Racing Form. In that race she was parked three wide into the first turn and continued racing three wide down the backstretch trailing an above average early pace set by longshot dueling leaders Lovable Lass and Finley’s Lucky Charm (designated by red TimeformUS pace figures). She was driven four wide around the far turn and fanned five wide into the stretch, put in her bid to challenge for the lead and ran evenly to the wire while out finished by the last to first rail rally of the 74-1 longshot Venue Valentine. When you consider how fast the early pace was and the amount of ground she lost from start to finish her margin of defeat is better than it appears on paper. She returned from a forty-nine day layoff in the Gr. 2 Gazelle on April 9 where she was forwardly placed to a moderate early pace in fourth early racing one off the rail early, moved up three wide on the far turn, head aim on the favored winner into the stretch, and was no match finishing seven-lengths clear of the rest of the field earning her first triple digit TimeformUS Speed Figure. She is reunited with Florent Geroux who rode this filly to a head victory in her second career start and TimeformUS has this filly trailing early behind an excepted quick early pace. Returning to a fast main track where she can hopefully save some ground early after her troubled fourth in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes she can sneak into wagers such as exacta, trifecta, and superfecta at boxcar odds.

(9) PAOLA QUEEN: It took five starts for this daughter of Flatter to break her maiden on Valentine’s Day February 14 where she parlayed a perfect trip versus moderate competition. She was able to set an uncontested early lead through slow early fractions (designated by the blue TimeformUS pace figures) and turned away a prolonged bid from Privy Council to win by a length in a race where the second-and-third place finishers returned to run second in their next start. She took a step up in class against winners in the Gr. 2 Gulfstream Oaks where she displayed her early speed but did so under pressure from longshot Hold On Momma and eventual winner Go Maggie Go as those three established a swift early pace for the first half mile. She continued fighting for the lead around the far turn, dropped back into third at mid-stretch, and re-rallied to get second. As mentioned in the analysis of Go Maggie Go despite its status as Gr. 2 this was not a strong event as the favorite, Off the Tracks, was unbeaten in three starts but those races were at distances from 5 to 6-½ furlongs. The Gustavo Delgado trainee looms as pace causality with the morning line favorite, Rachel’s Valentina, looming outside of her at each point of call.

(10) VENUS VALENTINE: The daughter of Congrats scored her biggest victory in the Gr. 2 Rachel Alexandra where she had conditions made to order to win by a length at 74-1 under Corey Lanerie. She was taken back at the start to trail early behind the supersonic pace battle between Lovable Lass and Finley’s Lucky Charm (designated by red TimeformUS pace figures). She commenced her run along towards the inside on the far turn, dove to the rail with a small opening past mid-stretch, and won by a length with the aid of a ground saving trip and above average early pace to set up her late kick. In the Fair Grounds Oaks the pace was moderate as she trailed the field early and could only pass three tired rivals beaten 10-¼ lengths. The major contenders in the Oaks will have to take a significant drop in form for this Tom Amoss trainee to contend in this year’s Kentucky Oaks.

(11) RACHEL’S VALENTINA: The daughter of Kentucky Oaks winner and Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, looks to emulate her famous mom in the race that made her famous. Prior to her game second place finish in the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes, the Bernardini filly concluded her two-year old campaign with a second place finish to the favored gate to wire winner and unbeaten champion Songbird in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. In that race, she sat just off the pacesetter early as Songbird established a very quick early pace for the first half mile. As the field reached the far turn, jockey John Velazquez began to ask Rachel Valentina to keep up with the unbeaten favorite but was out run into the stretch and chased home the winner losing by 5-¾ lengths earning a then career best 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. There is no disgrace finishing second to subsequent two-year old filly champion when you consider she was returning from a fifty-six day layoff in her first start at 1-1/16 miles. She skipped the entire Gulfstream Park series of races for three-year old fillies to point for the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes as her only prep for the Kentucky Oaks and although she was beaten by a 30-1 longshot in Weep No More, I felt that Rachel’s Valentina ran the best race of her career in defeat as she gave the winner and the favorite, Cathryn’s Sophia, a conditioning advantage over this Todd Pletcher trainee. In the Ashland, she sat off the pacesetter, Carina Mia, early as those two established an above average early pace for the first half mile. She applied more pressure on that rival midway on the far turn, put away that rival into the stretch (finished fourth beaten 2-½ lengths), only to be collared by the favorite Cathryn’s Sophia at the eighth pole but battled back gamely to retake the lead only to be caught by the last to first rally of Weep No More earning a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure and highest career Speed Figure in the field. Her effort looks even better when you consider she disputed a very fast early pace versus a strong outside-closers bias (designed by the blue TimeformUS Race Rating). Drawn outside she looks to be in perfect spot either sitting off the two longshot leaders, Go Maggie Go and Paola Queen, or going straight to the front and playing catch me if you can. John Velasquez takes over and she is strictly the one to beat as I look for her to move forward in the Kentucky Oaks.

(12) CATHRYN SOPHIA: The daughter of Street Boss was breathtaking in her first four victories winning by a combined margin of 41-½ lengths recorded victories in the Gr. 2 Forward Gal and Davona Dale Stakes. Prior to her defeat in the Gr. 1 Ashland Stakes, she took full advantage of a perfect race set up in her seven-length victory in the Gr. 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park. She was parked four wide pressing a slow early pace in the clear (blue designated TimeformUS pace figures). The John Servis trainee engaged for the lead with a three wide on the far turn to inherit the lead into the stretch and drew off earning a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and that figure was validated when the runner-up, Lewis Bay, returned to win the Gr. 2 Gazelle with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Next to her perfect trip one strike about that victory was her gallop out. Soon after the wire she pulled up a furlong after the wire like a filly that was very tired from this blowout win and in my opinion showed signs that one mile will be her limit. She was sent off as the 1-2 post time favorite in the Gr. 1 Ashland against strong field that included Grade 1 winner Rachel Valentina and Gr. 2 Golden Rod winner Carina Mia and she was exposed as one turn filly with no excuse third in her final prep for the Oaks. She was placed third in a perfect spot behind the two dueling leaders, Rachel Valentina and Carina Mia, through the first half mile in a quick 47.24 seconds. She angled off the inside midway on the far turn and moved up three wide to challenge the dueling leaders all the way to the top of the stretch where she took a slim lead but failed go forward she flattened out the final sixteenth of a mile to lose second to Rachel Valentina eventually being collared by the last to first rally of longshot Weep No More. Trip handicappers such as myself conclude that Cathryn’s Sophia should not have lost this race given the trip she encountered and is probably better suited around one turn. In fact, her connections said after the Ashland that their first choice would be the Eight Belles run earlier on Oaks undercard but was lured into this race with the defection of Songbird. TimeformUS pedigree rating of 66 indicate she is not bred to handle the 1-⅛ miles distance and as the second choice I look to beat her in this race.

(13) LAND OVER SEA: The daughter of Bellamy Road is sure happy to see Songbird in the Kentucky Oaks as the latter has defeated this filly in five consecutive starts. In order to escape from Songbird’s shadow, trainer Doug O’Neil shipped to the Fair Grounds for the Fair Grounds Oaks and scored her Graded Stakes victory. She rated kindly in the two-path moderate early pace dictated by the dueling leaders Midnight On Oconee and Adore. The chestnut filly moved up three wide around the far turn with dead aim on the leader Adore into the long Fair Grounds stretch and she needed the majority of the lane to wear down that foe but once she did kicked clear to win by five lengths earning 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She will be taking a step up in class as this year’s Kentucky Oaks is an accomplished field versus the likes of Dream Dance who has only a maiden and Allowance N1X victory and Adore who also has the same two wins. This stalker merits strong consideration as a contender based on her two runner-up defeats where she was well clear of the rest of the field in the Gr. 2 Las Virgenes and Gr. 3 Santa Ysabel behind Songbird who would have been an overwhelming favorite if she was not sick. Jockey Mario Gutierrez is looking for sweep of the major three-year old stakes with Land Over Sea in the Oaks and Nyquist in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

(14) TAXABLE: The third of Steve Asmussen trainees won her first two starts by a combined nine-lengths including defeating a “key” race field in her debut on June 25 over this Churchill Downs main track where three horses behind her came back to win. She made her three-year old seasonal debut on March 11 at Oaklawn Park where she proved that she handle at least one mile and sloppy main track to win by two-lengths over another “key” race field where the fourth-and-sixth place finishers came back to win. In the Gr. 3 Fantasy Stakes on April 9 at Oaklawn Park she lacked early zip trailing the field in fifth early as a three-horse speed battle developed going into the first turn. She continued to trail the field down the backstretch, moved up along the rail on the far turn, angled out, and put in a late run to miss by a neck behind her favored stablemate Terra Promessa. The Fantasy Stakes field lacked depth as the third-place finisher, Ready to Confess, was a maiden and Allowance N1X winner and fourth-place finisher, Cosmic Evolution, won a $100K Debutante and Allowance N1X as her two victories which explains why TimeformUS gave the Fantasy Stakes a 102 Race Rating. The Tapit filly will have to improve significantly to challenge the likes of Rachel Valentina, Lewis Bay, or Cathryn Sophia who have run faster.

Probable Pace Scenario:

Go Maggie Go who actually was second at the first call pressing Paola Queen in the Gulfstream Oaks and NOT fourth will be going straight for the early lead with the dangerous presence of Rachel Valentina in third three-wide pressing the pace in the clear. From the rail, Terra Promessa, along with Cathryn Sophia and Taxable will be in the second flight waiting to pounce on the leaders into the far turn. Main rivals such as Lewis Bay and Land Over Sea will be in mid-pack hoping Go Maggie Mo and Paola Queen establish a fast pace to set up for their late kick. Closers such as Weep No More will be the anchor in the field of fourteen.

SELECTIONS:

First Selection: (11) RACHEL’S VALENTINA: Won the early battle for the early lead with Carina Mia, fought back and turned away the challenge from the favorite Cathryn Sophia, took over the lead late, but was run down by the longshot opportunistic closer Weep No More earning a career best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Gr. 1 Ashland. Her effort looks even better when you consider she disputed the pace and fought gamely to the wire on the front end versus a strong bias towards outside-closers according to TimeformUS bias notes. The homebred Bernardini filly out of Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra will not have to deal with Songbird who she chased in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She can sit a perfect trip pressing or tracking longshot rivals Go Maggie Go and Paola Queen early before making her bid on the far turn. She is strictly the one this field must reel in as she will get the first run on stalkers such as Land Over Sea and Lewis Bay and will only need to improve in her second race following the layoff to score her second Gr. 1 victory.

Second Selection: (13) LAND OVER SEA: Escaped Songbird’s shadow with a 4-½ length victory in the Gr. 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. She settled in midpack early behind a quick early pace established by dueling leaders, moved up three wide on the far turn, wore down a stubborn pace presser in Adore, and kicked clear earning a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Doug O’Neil trainee was 3-½ and 3-¾ lengths in front of the rest of the field when she ran second to Songbird in the Gr. 2 Las Virgenes and Gr. 3 Santa Ysabel respectively. This stalker prefers to sit in mid pack and blast home and will appreciate a quick pace early if Go Maggie Go and Paola Queen go out and established a quick early pace for the first half mile like they did in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. The Bellamy Road filly has really blossomed in Kentucky according to Bruno De Julio’s workout report including a strong gallop on May 2 over Churchill Downs surface. Mario Gutierrez is reunited with this filly and she can spring a small upset if the top choice does not improve in her second start off the long layoff.

Third Selection: (3) LEWIS BAY: Undefeated at today’s 1-⅛ distance the daughter of Bernardini parlayed a perfect trip to win the Gr. 2 Gazelle on April 9 where she pressed a moderate early pace in the clear, took over the lead approaching the quarter pole, and blasted home to win by length and half while geared down to the wire switching leads more than once earning a career best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Chad Brown trainee only defeat to Cathryn Sophia happened in the Gr. 2 Davona Dale where she was making her first start off a 91-day layoff and was using that race as a tune up to stretch out. She makes her third start following a layoff a move this barn scores with a 100 trainer rating and this bay filly has worked crisply according to Bruno De Julio workout report in her two works over the Churchill Downs including her half mile spin on April 23 in company with Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Wavell Avenue.

Fourth Selection: (1) TERRA PROMESSA: While the second choice, Cathryn Sophia, is questionable at 1-⅛ miles, this daughter of Curlin is not as she is unbeaten in four starts at 1-1/16 miles including a 6-½ length victory in the Gr. 3 Honeybee on March 12 at Oaklawn Park. The daughter of Curlin blew a two-length lead at mid-stretch of the Fantasy to win by a neck on April 9 but that was the result of this Steve Asmussen trainee being extremely rank fighting jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. early. As with Lewis Bay and Land Over Sea, she has trained sharply over the Churchill Downs main track where she broke her maiden in her second start according to Bruno De Julio’s workout report.

Wagering Strategies:

My strategy in this race is too beat the co-second choices, Weep No More (bias aided Ashland win) and Cathryn Sophia (questionable around two turns). I prefer to keep my wagers simple without risking too much money in each race. I will stick to the exacta in this race because without either of the second choices this exacta can pay well given we construct the tickets to maximize our opinion. Below is my $44 Exacta play. You can adjust this play based on your comfort level.

$12 Exacta: 11 with 13

$8 Exacta: 11 with 3

$6 Exacta: 11 with 1

Total Wager: $26  

$8 Exacta: 13 with 11

$6 Exacta 3 with 11

$4 Exacta 1 with 11

Total Wager: $18

Total Exacta wagers: $44