2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks and Analysis

Gr.1 Las Vegas Dirt Mile

31st Breeders’ Cup – Keeneland

Date: Friday, Oct. 30th         Post Time: 4:10 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 mile (dirt)         Purse: $1,000,000


Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

1-Red Vine|Joel Rosario|Christophe Clement|6-1
2-Bradester|Corey Lanerie|Eddie Kenneally|10-1
3-Liam’s Map|Javier Castellano|Todd Pletcher|1-1
4-Mr. Z|Joe Bravo|D. Wayne Lukas|50-1
5-Lea|Jose Lezcano|William Mott|8-1
6-Street Strategy|Robby Albarado|Randy Morse|50-1
7
-War Envoy|Ryan Moore|Aidan O’Brien|30-1
8
-Wicked Strong|John Velazquez|James Jerkens|5-1
9
-Tapiture|Ricardo Santana Jr.|Steve Asmussen|10-1
10
-Valid|Nik Juarez|Marcus Vitali|10-1
11
– War Story|Deshawn Parker|Jeffrey Radosevich|50-1


Guest Handicapper: Acacia Courtney

The King:

1)   Liam’s Map – At even money on the morning line, many bettors are trying to beat Liam’s Map. But, the question remains as to whether he can be beat. The 4-year-old Unbridled’s Song colt is fast – really fast. This summer in Saratoga, he ran a valiant second in the Whitney, falling short by just a neck behind the late-charging Honor Code after leading the entire race. In his next start, Liam’s Map came back with a vengeance and won the Woodward by nearly 5 lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Classic was also an option for him, but trainer Todd Pletcher decided to go for the mile option, and Liam’s Map is 3-for-3 at this distance. He’ll be ridden once again by Javier Castellano, who piloted the gray to his most recent win. Seems like there’s a pretty good reason why he’s getting so much love in the odds department.

The Nobles:

1)   Wicked Strong – Wicked Strong may only have 3 wins in 19 lifetime starts, but he’s always right there. He recently ran second to Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on a sloppy track, and finished third in the Woodward, a neck behind Coach Inge (who was 4 ¾ lengths behind Liam’s Map). He’s had some impressive works lately, and a nice breeze Tuesday morning at Keeneland. With trainer Jimmy Jerkens also electing to bypass the Classic in favor of the Dirt Mile, Wicked Strong will probably be positioned just behind the expected fast pace. I would be shocked if he didn’t hit the board in this race.

2)   Bradester – He hasn’t raced in two months and has never raced at Keeneland, but if you judge by the way he’s been training, Bradester seems to like the bluegrass. He has improved each time he’s run over the track, most recently putting in 5 furlongs in 58 and 3. He has some speed as well, and did very well this summer at Monmouth, and it looks like trainer Eddie Kenneally couldn’t be happier with how he’s been doing at Keeneland. At 10-1 on the morning line, he’s a pretty attractive bet to have on the ticket. Bradester (post 2), Valid (post 10), and Red Vine (post 1) have gone up against each other on several occasions, and will match up again here along with some new rivals.

3)   Red Vine – A turf horse until his race at Aqueduct in December last year was taken off and boom – a successful dirt horse. His five starts since then have all been in the money, and he has a win and two seconds at a mile. He recently finished second in the Kelso at Belmont, two lengths in front of Classic contender and Whitney winner Honor Code, even after stumbling at the break. He’s got a good late kick and while he may not be able to catch the pace, it looks as though he could get close to it.

4)   Lea – There was a chance that Lea might run a mile on the turf for his Breeders’ Cup race, but the lovely Kentucky rain has prompted his connections to go for the Dirt Mile instead. One this is for sure: turf or dirt, Lea likes to run at this distance and is 3-for-3 at a mile. He has yet to get a win after three US races following his third place finish in the Dubai World Cup, but has a pair of seconds and his disappointing 6th place finish in the Whitney was arguably the result of a bump and a poor trip with traffic. He has had some impressive finishes in his career, having earned more than $2 million in his 18 starts.

The Knights:

1)   Tapiture – After four disappointing finishes at different distances, Tapiture recently returned to the winner’s circle in his most recent race after dropping back down to a mile in the Ack Ack. He was second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile behind Goldencents, and has come back this year with eyes on the prize. Post 9 looks favorable for him, as most of the speed will break closer to the rail.

2)   War Envoy – One of the longshots at 30-1 on the morning line, War Envoy has only raced in the US once before, and that was last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where he finished 12th. He’s also normally a turf horse, having never run on dirt before. His last race was a fourth place finish on June 27 in Ireland. These factors make the 30-1 a bit more understanding, but, there are also some things that make me pause before disregarding him. The War Front colt won the Britannia Stakes at Ascot over a mile in a large field of 28 horses. He’s been at Keeneland for a while and has worked over the main track, getting a feel for the surface. In his most recent race, he did not get the ideal trip and got stuck in traffic, forced to go wide and still rallied for fourth. The four-month layoff shouldn’t be too concerning. Trainer Aidan O’Brien knows what he’s doing, with seven different horses entered in Breeders’ Cup races.

3)   Valid – 10 wins in 31 lifetime starts, and 4 of those were at a mile. He hasn’t run his best when he’s gone straight to the lead, and it’s doubtful that he would be on the front early when you’re sure to find the kind of fractions Liam’s Map usually puts forth on the lead. Not certain exactly where he’ll get set up breaking from the 10 post, and it looks like he’ll have to show a really serious effort to make an impact here.

The Peasants:

1)   Mr. Z – After bad beats in this year’s Derby and Preakness (among others), Mr. Z finally got a win in the Ohio Derby, though he held onto the lead by just a nose. That race was followed by a 2nd, a 7th, and 4th. He’s raced just once a mile, where finished third. He has early speed, but doesn’t seem to be able to hang on to it at the end, and has 2 wins in his 18 career starts. He’ll definitely show some of that speed here and will have an impact on the pace, as he breaks from 4 post, just one out from Liam’s Map. Debatable whether he’ll be able to carry that through the duration of the race.

2)   Street Strategy – Street Strategy’s only dabble in graded stakes company came in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, where he finished 5th, and the Grade 2 Rebel, where he finished 6th. He does, however, have a win at Keeneland and is 3/3 at a mile. He’s had some fast works at Churchill but it looks like he’ll have a lot to overcome in this company and is one of three at 50-1 on the morning line.

3)   War Story – Making his third start for trainer Jeffery Radosevich (after being trained by Tom Amoss and Ron Moquette), War Story is also 50-1 on the morning line and rounds out our Dirt Mile field. His most recent effort was a lackluster performance in the Pennsylvania Derby, and finished more than 19 lengths behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby. He usually breaks a bit slowly, and that means he will have no say in how the race plays out.

Picks

Acacia Courtney →  3-8-2-1 or 3-5-1-8

Claudia Lorena →  3-1-2-10 or 3-2-5-1

Ciara Bowen →  3-2-5-8

Paul’s Lo Duca →  1 / 3


Follow Acacia on Twitter --> @acacia_courtney