The 2014 Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational S. (G1)

Belmont Park

Date: Sept. 27, 2014         Post Time: 5:50 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt)         Purse: $1,000,000

First run in 1919, the Jockey Club Gold Cup is a grade I invitational stakes race open to thoroughbreds, 3-years-old and up. Originally run at the 1 ½ mile distance, Belmont’s coveted stakes race was shortened to the current 1 ¼ mile format back in 1990 and now serves as a preview for the Breeders’ Cup.  Past victors include Affirmed, Cigar, Bernardini and Curlin, to name a few, and ten horses have won the race twice. The record time belongs to Skip Away , who, in 1997,  stopped the clock at 1:58.89 with Jerry Bailey in the irons and was trained by Hubert Hine.

This years Jockey Club Gold Cup features a line-up that has racing fanatics and ambitious handicappers drooling. Top finishers in the 2014 Travers, V.E. Day, Wicked Strong and Tonalist will meet once again in an attempt to settle their rivalries, but they will have to face older and more experienced competition.  Zivo, Moreno, Micromanage, and Prayer for Relief are all equally as eager to triumph over the new kids on the block. Handicappers get to studying! You won’t want to miss this bunch duke it out on the track.

Wicked Strong highlights the field as the 3-1 M/L favorite for trainer Jimmy Jerkens.


Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – ContenderJockeyTrainerOdds
1 – MicromanageLuis SaezTodd Pletcher20-1
2 – Last GunfighterJoe BravoChad C. Brown20-1
3 – Wicked StrongRajiv MaraghJimmy Jerkens3-1
4 – ZivoJose LezcanoChad C. Brown6-1
5 – Prayer for ReliefJohn R. VelazquezDale Romans15-1
6 – Long RiverCornelio VelazquezKiaran McLaughlin30-1
7 – Speak LogisticsPaco LopezGary Contessa50-1
8 – TonalistJoel RosarioChristophe Clement4-1
9 – StephanoatseeJose L. OrtizNicholas Zito20-1
10 – V.E. DayJavier CastellanoJimmy Jerkens5-1
11 – MorenoJunior AlvaradoEric J. Guillot7-2
12 – Big CasanovaIrad Ortiz Jr.Peter Miller20-1

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1)     Tonalist – The Belmont Stakes winner returns to run on his favorite track and will hit the dirt with regular Belmont jockey Joel Rosario. These two are alpha-males on the scene and will both be equally ferocious when it is time to defend their territory come Saturday.  The Christophe Clement-trained colt, by Tapit, failed to fire in his last two starts at Saratoga. Lacking that extra punch seen in his Peter Pan G2, Tonalist finished third and second in the Travers Stakes and Jim Dandy, respectively, placing behind stable-mate Wicked Strong both times. This weekend, when the big bay colt sets his hoofs on the track he’ll be showing-off more of his face—Blinkers off. He should get a perfect trip with the way the pace is looking to unfold. Come Saturday, Tonalist will be synonymous with the term beast mode.

2)     Zivo – A long-shot in July, this son of True Direction returned a generous profit and was part of a hefty superfecta payout when he made an impressive move from eleventh at the ¾-pole to hit the wire ahead of the pack by three triumphant lengths in the 1 ¼ mile Suburban Handicap G2, on Belmont’s dirt track. His split fractional time from the stretch to the wire was run in 24.87 and he stopped the clock with a winning time of 2:00.43 on a fast track. Prior to his set back in last month’s 1 1/8 mile Woodward G1 at Saratoga, where he finished fourth, Chad Brown’s entry had been undefeated in all six starts since December of 2013. Back at Belmont on Saturday with Jose Lezcano returning for his third consecutive ride, Zivo has the tactical speed that looks likeliest to threaten Tonalist on the stretch.

The Nobles:

1)     V.E. Day – Edging out his rival to devastate by a nose, last month’s Travers victor will attempt to one-up Wicked Strong once again. Trained by the ever-so-classy Jimmy Jerkens, V.E. Day is a proven winner at the distance that seems to be blossoming more and more with every start. He’s won his last four starts and galloped to win his MSW, back in May by half a length, over a sloppy track at Belmont after it was taken off of the turf. The son of English Channel has a 102 Beyer and oozes talent, but he’ll have to keep an eye out for Zivo who will also be coming in hot from the back of the pack. His final time of 2:02.43 going 1 ¼ in the Travers at Saratoga makes him three seconds slower than ideal, and his split fractional time from third at the stretch to first at the wire — 26.33 — does not indicate significant thrust to win a battle against Zivo. A win in Saturday’s JC Gold Cup will not come easy. He and Javier Castellano will have to work hard in tandem in order to bring this one home.

2)     Wicked Strong – Blinkers on proved to be an outstanding decision for this millionaire son of Hard Spun. He finished in a dead-heat for fourth with California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes — sans blinkers — then bested the Belmont winner, Tonalist, in the Jim Dandy — with blinkers. In last month’s Travers, Wicked Strong fell short when V.E. Day surged late on the scene, catching both colt and jockey by surprise. Rajiv Maragh later explained that blinkers can cause a horse to think he’s in the clear when really a rival is obstructed from their view and lurking close enough to steal the victory at the last millisecond. Watching the replay the colt does indeed seem to think the race is over, when in reality it was not. The issue was not in the distance, but more so error on behalf of Maragh to not look back and keep pushing forward. C’est la vie, but don’t expect these two to fall victim to that careless mistake ever again.

3)     Moreno – No doubt about it, the Eric Guillot-trained colt will be the speed on Saturday. With his top 109 Beyer he’ll hold onto the lead for as long as he can, but his running style has cost him several victories this past year and the Jockey Club Gold Cup 1 ¼ mile distance is panning out to be the perfect trap. There will be notable 3-year-olds in close quarters, tracking his every move, pushing him to tire. It is in Junior Alvarado’s best interest to keep this speed demon under restraint so he doesn’t give out on his run to the wire. No disrespect to this talented colt, but all the other runners better hope their connections have voodoo dolls ready to counteract Moreno’s witchcraft that was coincidentally present in his barn prior to his gallant accomplishment in the Whitney G1.

The Knights:

1)     Prayer for Relief – The Dale Romans-trained colt finished third behind Moreno in last month’s Woodward G1, was fourth behind Will Take Charge in the Whitney G1 and third to Zivo and Moreno in the Suburban Handicap G2 just three starts ago. This son of Jump Start has the third highest Beyer at 106 and although he hasn’t been victorious in over one year, he looks sound enough to quite possibly finish third or fourth. John Velazquez is back in the irons.

2)     Micromanage – Todd Pletcher’s colt, by Medaglia d’Oro, certainly has the stamina for extreme distances. The 4-year-old ran in the 1 ¾ mile Birdstone Stakes early last month to own the field by 8 ½ lengths. He flopped in the Suburban Handicap to finish seventh, but prior to that came in second by a neck in the 1 ½ Brooklyn G2 at Belmont on Belmont Stakes day. He’s conditioned for the distance and has one of the top Beyers at 103. No threat to Zivo, Moreno, or Prayer for Relief in the Suburban raises a question of whether he is capable of hanging with the big guns. Still his 20-1 M/L is enticing. If he doesn’t scratch he may offer a rewarding payout in your superfecta. Think this one over before you wager.

3)     Big Casanova – This 5-year-old son of Giant’s Causeway shows strong preference for being hot on the pace and is likely to surge from the gate to challenge Moreno. The Argentinian col,t trained by Peter Miller, spent some time running in his native land before switching to graded stakes races in Peru and eventually winding up in California. He won the 1½ mile Jockey Club Classic of Peru-G1  and has won three of six U.S. starts, but is a bit outclassed in Saturday’s field and has points against him for never having run at Belmont. Irad Ortiz Jr. will call the shots aboard this first time Belmont runner. Careful, Irad. Too hot, too quick is bound to come up empty when the big boys behind are just getting started.

The Peasants:

1)     Last Gunfighter – Another peasant that has run with some of the best in very notable graded stakes races, but has proven no match. Joe Bravo rode this son of First Samurai to the 1 ¼ mile Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap victory, so he is the best ranking of this tier. However, the colt’s final time is a slow 2:06 and he held the lead by just one length against a subpar field. His past performances show he has some tactical speed on the stretch, but nowhere near enough to beat the nation’s finest. This colt finished fifth in last year’s JC Gold Cup.

2)     Stephanoatsee – Decadent bloodlines make up this colt’s pedigree, but Nicholas Zito’s entry has run with the likes of Moreno and Prayer for Relief and been unable to reach their level. The 5-year-old hasn’t scored a victory in nearly two years, but skimming over his past performances it’s not surprising as he’s passed through the hands of three trainers this year alone, and jockeys have seemingly played musical chairs on him since October of 2012. Jose Ortiz has the ride, but this colt needs a more notable jockey to even be in contention.

3)     Long River – This son of A.P. Indy beat Micromanage in the 1-mile Time of Change Stakes last December, won an optional claiming at Belmont last October and hit the wire ¾’s of a length ahead of the Evening Attire Stakes field, earlier this year. He’s run in graded stakes since March and will meet Moreno, Micromanage and Prayer for Relief on the track yet again. However, his connections seem a bit too ambitious. If four of the superiorly ranked superstars refuse to break when the gates swing open, then maybe this 30-1 chestnut will have a shot at finishing fourth.

4)     Speak Logistics – To be frank, this 4-year-old son of High Cotton has some respectable names in his family tree, but he seems uninterested in pursuing his racing career. He’s passed through the hands of three trainers since February of this year and while Paco Lopez may attempt to prove us wrong, the simple fact of the matter is that the caliber of horses in this field are going to run circles around Gary Contessa’s outclassed colt. Forget his 96 Beyer and his past performances. He’s going to get smoked.

The Maiden’s Ten Dollar Crusade

$ 0.50  Trifecta for $9.00 → 4 , 8 / 3 , 4 , 8 , 10 / 3 , 4 , 8 , 10 , 11

$1.00 Superfecta  → 4 – 8 – 3 – 10

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Through the Eyes of the Mad Capper

The Kings:

1)     Tonalist- After two less than spectacular showings at Saratoga in the Jim Dandy and the Travers, Christophe Clement is about to unleash a monster in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This three-year-old son of Tapit is the reigning Belmont Stakes champion, and simply put, he adores this race track. His two lone starts over the surface were commanding victories, and there is no reason for him to throw a dud here. Tonalist is fast enough to stay close to the pace and has proven strong enough to get the Gold Cup distance. Joel Rosario’s return to the saddle is also a tremendous boost.

2)     V.E. Day- Horses do not win four consecutive races at the most prestigious tracks in the country because of luck or happenstance. James Jerkens trains this son of English Channel that is perhaps the toughest horse to hit the scene in some time. V.E. Day’s running style can simply be summed up as relentless. He and his jockey Javier Castellano seem to take to the track with similar mindsets. In the Gold Cup, the duo returns to the same distance as in the Travers, and the plentitude of speed should set them up quite nicely here.   

3)     Zivo- Zivo began his year by reeling off five consecutive victories on the New York racing circuit before regressing slightly last out in the Woodward at Saratoga. The five-year-old son of True Direction soundly defeated four of his fellow opponents in the Suburban Handicap back in July. Chad Brown conditions this hopeful and the riding duties will once again go to Jose Lezcano. Zivo is likely to be running mid-pack in the Gold Cup, and Lezcano will time his burst of speed based on the pace that is set in front of him.

The Nobles:

1)     Prayer for Relief- Prayer for Relief is winless in 2014 and his last victory came in a non-graded stakes event at the Fair Grounds in December of 2013. Nonetheless, the six-year-old son of Jump Start has strung together three sneaky good races, and the early speed in the Gold Cup could be highly beneficial to his chances from off the pace. Trainer Dale Romans has been known to deliver shockers in big races, and the addition of Hall of Fame rider Johnny Velasquez will do nothing to hurt the team’s chances.

2)     Wicked Strong- Two months ago, this three-year-old war horse, named after the prideful city of Boston, would have been sitting atop our list of Kings, but the son of Hard Spun has had a most difficult campaign. We will be looking for this other entry of James Jerkens to show signs of regression here in the Gold Cup. His most recent outings at Saratoga were more than commendable, finishing first in the Jim Dandy and second in the Travers. Still, horses can only remain at the top of their game for so long, and Wicked Strong is about to start spiraling south.

The Knights:

1)     Big Cazanova- This Argentinian born ridgling is an offspring of Giant’s Causeway and has run a total of six races on American soil. All six starts have taken place on the West Coast and he will be making his first journey out east for the Gold Cup. Big Cazanova is a certified speed monger, and breaking from an outer post alongside of Moreno may prove to be his undoing. His two most recent outings were victories versus Allowance Optional Claiming competition at Del Mar. The bump up in class will be difficult, but his presence will surely help dictate the outcome on Saturday.

2)     Micromanage- This son of Medaglia d’Oro should not be far off the pace, despite breaking from the rail post in the Gold Cup. His positioning could be helpful, and the early speed would also seem to play in his favor, but the horse is clearly outmatched among the others that are entered. Handicappers may wish to use Micromanage on the bottom side of superfecta plays, but nothing more.

3)     Moreno- This four-year-old son of Ghostzapper may just be the quickest horse in the race, yet it will do him no favors to be lined up right next to the second quickest. Crafty Trainer Eric Guillot will be wise to ask Junior Alvarado to make an attempt at rationing his speed, but chances are that he and the Argentinian lover boy will duel each other into submission on the front end. Moreno has posted three solid efforts in succession, but it appears his time has passed and his time for regression is now.

The Peasants:

1)     Last Gunfighter- Albert Einstein once said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. This pretty much encapsulates Chad Brown’s thinking with the five-year-old son of First Samurai. He has notched three consecutive, abysmal performances in the Suburban, Whitney, and the Woodward. He remains a talented thoroughbred, but no longer belongs among Grade I competitors.

2)     Long River- If any of the Mad Capper’s peasants could provide a slight surprise, perhaps it could be this four-year-old son of A.P. Indy. He has not endured the wear and tear of our other peasants, and if he has a career race buried somewhere deep within, he could potentially challenge for a placing. The likelihood of this happening does remain substantially poor.

3)     Speak Logistics- Dear Gary Contessa, Paco Lopez, and the Hardway Stables: Many congratulations on getting into the starting gate, but you seriously have got to be kidding me! Sincerely, The Mad Capper.

4)     Stephanoatsee- Nick Zito will saddle this five-year-old son of A. P. Indy that most recently finished fifth in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. He has run consistently average races against Allowance Optional Claiming competition, but this group is a considerable cut above that. Jose Ortiz will be handed the reins by Zito as they begin the post parade for the 2014 edition of the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The Mad Capper’s Ten Dollar Crusade

$0.50 Trifecta for $6.00 → 8,10/4,5,8,10/4,5,8,10

$2.00 Exacta for $4.00 → 10/4,8


Follow The Mad Capper on Twitter --> @matticapper