2016 Holy Bull Stakes Picks and Analysis

Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2) – Gulfstream Park

Date: Saturday, January 30th         Post Time: 5:05 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 1/16 (dirt)         Purse: $350,000


Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

1-Perfect Saint|Corey Lanerie|Dale Romans|20-1
2-Mohaymen|Junior Alvarado|Kiaran McLaughlin|6-5
3-Fellowship|Jose Caraballo|Stanley Gold|20-1
4-Conquest Big E|Mike Smith|Mark Casse|7-2
5-Greenpointcrusader|John Velazquez|Dominick Schettino|8-5
6-Frontier Ranger|Edgard Zayas|Ronald Pellegrini|15-1


Contender Analysis

The King:

1)Mohaymen – Undefeated in his three career starts, this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is a favorite among handicappers. Just recently putting in a speedy :59.40 work at Palm Meadows, Mohaymen comes into the Holy Bull in good form. The multiple graded stakes winner’s 95 Beyer makes him the fastest in the field, so it’s not farfetched to imagine he’ll be the pace in the race. Judging by the past performances, it doesn’t look like he’ll have much competition up front either, with only one other possible frontrunner.

The Nobles:

1)Greenpointcrusader – Mohaymen’s biggest threat. Greenpointcrusader’s win in the Gr. 1 Champagne Stakes technically makes him the classiest runner in the group, but failure to make the top four in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is what bumped him down to a “Noble”. He had a tough start in the Champagne Stakes but overcame it with steady acceleration that took him from second-last to first over the mile long race. In his defense, his BC trip was plagued with traffic troubles that won’t be present in Saturday’s short field of six. Expect the Bernardini colt to take nicely to Gulfstream’s footing as his first two starts came over the trying Saratoga dirt. Additionally, jockey John Velazquez brings much value to the equation with his superb riding technique. Expect him to bring out the best in his mount.
Note: Can run in slop! 

2)Conquest Big E – This handsome son of Tapit showed speed under heavy restraint in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he tired towards the end and finished 8th. Dropping in class to win last undoubtedly served as a nice confidence booster, but he’s going to have to work for it over Gulfstream’s dirt, which is deeper than Keeneland and Churchill. Hall of Famer Mike Smith is a big fan and will be aboard this Mark Casse runner come Saturday. Expect him to challenge or set the pace.
Note: Both of Conquest Big E’s wins have come over sloppy tracks, so keep an eye on the weather and expect him to excel in the rain.

The Knights:

1)    Fellowship – It’s not my favorite thing in the world to find that a horse has been run so much as a 2-year-old, and that is exactly the case for Fellowship. The Stanley Gold trainee has hometrack advantage and is a winner at the distance, but his past performances are starting to resemble those of Mr. Z,  and we all know how well Mr. Z did with an overly ambitious campaign. Not well at all.

The Peasants:

1)Perfect Saint – Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs back in November and took a shot at stakes company in the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club S., finishing 7th of 13. Last out, he jumped down in class and finished last in an optional claimer at Gulfstream, which is really NOT good. Looking back at his graded stakes run, Perfect Saint was forced to go about five-wide on sloppy track in the rain. On paper, it doesn’t seem like he did much, but watching the replay shows he put in a respectable amount of effort, he just didn’t have enough. I kind of like him, but that last start is a huge red flag. Dear Dale Romans, what do you know that I don’t?

2)    Frontier Ranger – Out of five career starts he’s only won once and that was back in October when he broke his maiden by 1 ¼ lengths on turf. Tried dirt for the first time on January 9th and finished 3rd in an optional claimer. Not impressed.

Picks

5 – Greenpointcrusader, #2 – Mohaymen, #4 – Conquest Big E

Exacta Box → 5 – 2


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