Top Five Kentucky Derby Selections

By: Christopher Ado

Once again, this year’s Kentucky Derby has a strong Southern California presence. Since the summer of 2015, Graded Stakes races for two-year olds were won by those based on the west coast. Exaggerator (Saratoga Special and Delta Jackpot), Ralis (Hopeful Stakes), and Nyquist (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) all shipped east and won. That successful trend has continued as three-year-olds such as Cupid (Rebel Stakes), Nyquist (Florida Derby) and Collected (Lexington Stakes) successfully shipped from their Santa Anita training base to win. As a Wagering Ambassador at Santa Anita, I believe the difficult part for this year’s Derby is selecting the three-year-old that meets the basic criteria (speed, pace, current condition and running style) that suits the likely pace scenario of the Kentucky Derby. My top selection this year might not have the past performances of Nyquist, but he is proven and adaptable under different conditions/surfaces, and is bred for classic distances.


Top Five Selections

First Selection
(11) EXAGGERATOR: The son of Curlin enters this year’s Kentucky Derby with the field’s highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 118 earned in his come from behind victory over a sloppy main track in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 9. Prior to his mild 3-1 upset in the Santa Anita Derby, this Keith Desormeaux trainee ran sneaky good third behind the gate to wire winner, Danzing Candy, in the Gr. 2 San Felipe on March 12 at Santa Anita Derby. He trailed early behind the uncontested leader early, commenced a strong run along the rail leaving the half mile pole to move from sixth into second midway on the far turn, got within a length and half of the leader turning for home but flattened out on his run losing second to Mor Spirit who was able to pick up the pieces for second. With a better timed ride and more early speed, Exaggerator would have given Danzing Candy a run for his money and that is exactly what happened in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby. He was not asked for speed as Danzing Candy refused to rate on the lead as he tore off to set an uncontested lead through blistering early fractions (denoted by the red TimeformUS pace figures). He launched his rally three wide passing rivals as track Michael Wrona said in his call “as if they were tied to the rail,” opened up a 4-½ length lead at mid-stretch, and won going away earning the field’s highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. This victory was earned under optimal conditions that I doubt he will see again. Run over a sloppy main track that he relishes as he owns a record of 3-2-1-0 on a non-fast main track routing and had the benefit of complete pace meltdown as Danzing Candy set a too fast early pace weakening to fourth beaten 13-½ lengths. Despite this perfect trip, Exaggerator is a horse that can carry his track with him having won sprinting on a fast main track at Del Mar in his maiden win, Saratoga in the Saratoga Special, and won over a wet fast surface disputing the early lead in the Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. Moreover, Exaggerator has a versatile running style where he has shown the ability to lead, stalk, or come from well off the early pace depending how fast the leaders go. He is bred to handle the 1-1/4 miles and further being a son of Curlin and comes into the Kentucky Derby as one of the elite entrants from Southern California.

Second Selection
(17) MOR SPIRIT: Trained by four time Kentucky Derby winning conditioner, Bob Baffert, this son of Eskendereya has progressed slowly for this event but can rebound if this dark bay or brown colt can find a fast main track on the first Saturday in May. He cruised to an effortless victory in the Gr. 3 Robert Lewis on February 6 defeating two rivals in Uncle Lino and I Will Score who were both stretching out from a sprint to a route for the first time. He entered the Gr. 2 San Felipe where he faced the stiffest challenge of his career running against the undefeated Smokey Image, last year’s Delta Jackpot winner and Breeders’ Futurity runner-up Exaggerator, and Danzing Candy who was unbeaten in two starts over the Santa Anita main track. In that race he saved ground early only to find himself in tight quarters between rivals midway point on the first turn, steadied, and angled to the rail to save ground down the backstretch as Danzing Candy was able to zip an opening quarter in 22.96 and half mile in 46.11 seconds a moderate early pace according to TimeformUS pace figures. He was outrun by Exaggerator into the far turn, continued to save ground on the turn and into the stretch, angled off the rail at mid-stretch, and rallied to pick up the pieces for second without any urging from jockey Gary Stevens and galloped out with the winner after the wire suggesting this race was strictly used as a prep for the April 9 Santa Anita Derby. The additional distance and more pace in the Santa Anita Derby were the reason why this ridgling was sent off as the 7-5 post time favorite and he once again plodded along for second behind the next to last rally of Exaggerator. He displayed more positional speed saving ground racing in front of Denman’s Call and Iron Rob both horses stretching out following a sprint. Mor Spirit raced in fourth behind Danzig Candy who set a supersonic early pace through the first six furlongs (designated by the red TimeformUS pace figures), rallied along the rail on the turn and into the stretch, came out at mid-stretch, and once again rallied for non-threatening second in the field’s best prep race for this year’s Derby as it earned 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. One can view this race as disappointing because he did not progress from his San Felipe to the Santa Anita but I’m going to draw a line through that race because this was the second time in two starts where he failed to handle a wet track. He returns to Churchill Downs the site of his gutsy runner-up performance in the Gr. 2 Kentucky Club Jockey Club where he finished in front of Mo Tom and Gun Runner the subsequent winners of the Lecomte Stakes and Risen Star Stakes respectively. His improved positional early speed will allow jockey Gary Stevens to position Mor Spirit ahead of closers who will have to navigate their way through traffic. He is definite contender to bounce back as Bob Baffert’s first two Derby winners: Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran second in the Santa Anita Derby before emerging victorious on the first Saturday in May.

Third Selection
(20) DANZING CANDY: Those that believe in the old adage “pace makes the race,” can look at this Twirling Candy colt as the Kentucky Derby pacesetter. After running better than looked in his debut versus a “key” race field at Del Mar, he came back with a facile maiden victory over another productive field in his second career start on opening day of the Santa Anita winter meeting. He showed he was able to stretch his speed to two turns when he defeated winners on February 4 at one mile where he established a controlled early pace through slower than average early pace for the first six furlongs (designated by the blue TimeformUS pace figures), kicked away into the stretch, and maintained his lead to the wire to win by two-lengths defeating a sub-par field as the four horses that came back to run lost their next start. He stepped up to face stakes company in the Gr. 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 12 facing a talented field that included Exaggerator, Mor Spirit, and two very fast sprinters in Uncle Lino and I Will Score and this Clifford Sise Jr. trainee ran his rivals off their feet in impressive gate to wire victory earning a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure that equals the career best TimeformUS Speed Figure of Nyquist and Mohaymen. The two parts of that victory that were impressive was his TimeformUS pace figures were higher than Outwork pace figures for the Tampa Bay Derby and the two pace rivals that chased Danzing Candy early tired badly to finish fourth and sixth. He was sent off as the second choice behind Mor Spirit in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby and he went too fast early establishing a suicidal early fractions (designated by the red TimeformUS pace figures) for the first six furlongs. By the time Danzing Candy reached the top of the stretch he was a tired horse and jockey Mike Smith wisely wrapped up on him through the final furlong finishing fourth beaten 13-¼ lengths behind the next to last rally of Exaggerator. The early pace of the Santa Anita Derby was flattered when the third-place finisher, Uncle Lino, returned to win California Chrome Stakes with a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The field’s leader in TimeformUS early pace rating, Danzing Candy will attempt to emulate previous gate to wire winners of the Kentucky Derby such as Bold Forbes, Spend a Buck, Winning Colors, Go for Gin, and War Emblem. A case can be made if Mike Smith can ration this colt’s early speed through the first half mile he can prove to be a very tough rival to run down especially if his expected pace rival, Outwork, decides to rate off the early pace giving Danzing Candy an uncontested early lead. He is your long shot candidate that can spring the big upset on the front end.

Fourth Selection
(13) NYQUIST: The undefeated Eclipse Awards winning two-year old enters this year’s Kentucky Derby as the deserving morning line favorite. He owns versatile running style showing the ability to rate further off the pace overcoming a disastrous wide journey to win last year’s Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over a strong field by half-length. He comes into this year’s Kentucky Derby with convincing victories in the seven furlong Gr. 2 San Vicente and stretched out successfully to win the mile and an eighth Gr. 1 Florida Derby over the previously unbeaten Mohaymen to win by 3-¼ lengths earning a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He enjoyed a perfect trip in his three-year old seasonal debut in the Gr. 2 San Vicente establishing a pressured early pace through slow early fractions for the first half mile (denoted by blue TimeformUS pace figures), turned away a challenge by subsequent Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby winner, Exaggerator, and pulled clear to win by 1-½ lengths earning a then career best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He shipped to Gulfstream Park for the Gr. 1 Florida Derby and showed signs of his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile form defeating an overmatched field including the post time favorite Mohaymen. The son of Uncle Mo contested a moderate early pace through the first half mile between two 99-1 longshots: Sawyer’s Mickey and Chovanes. He was able to shake loose from those overmatched pace rivals into and around the far turn, faced a fresh challenge by Mohaymen approaching the quarter pole as jockey Mario Gutierrez floated that rival wide into the lane and kicked into another gear drawing away as he switched to his left lead and drifted out through the lane to prove best. One has to examine the depth of his Gr. 1 Florida Derby field to understand why TimeformUS gave it a 109 Race Rating. The second-place finisher, Majesto, just broke his maiden in his previous start and the third-place finisher, Fellowship, has only a maiden win and a restricted stakes win versus Florida breds. In addition, the career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby is no better than rivals such as Danzig Candy, Mor Spirit, and Exaggerator the first three finishers of the Gr. 2 San Felipe Stakes. The same connections that trained I’ll Have Another to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes merits the support he will receive as the probable betting favorite but he is contender in a wide open Kentucky Derby where there is no clear standout.

Fifth Selection
(19) BRODY’S CAUSE: The Giant’s Causeway colt returns to Churchill Downs where he broke his maiden in his second career start as a two-year old. The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, the Dale Romans trainee showed his affinity for the Lexington surface with a come from behind victory in the Gr. 1 Bluegrass Stakes on April 12 at Keeneland. In that race, he was reserved well off the early pace in eleventh early as the maiden, Laoban, establish an above average early pace through the first six furlongs (designated by the red TimeformUS pace figures). He commenced his rally into and around the far turn weaving through rivals, had dead aim on the tired leaders into the stretch, took over the lead at mid-stretch, and won by 1-¾ lengths posting career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. As with Exaggerators victory in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby, his victory in the Bluegrass Stakes occurred optimal conditions. His rally was aided by a supersonic early pace set by the longshot Laoban in a race where it collapsed for the closers as the first three finishers rallied from eleventh, thirteenth, and tenth. Moreover, TimeformUS bias notes suggested his rally was aided by a strong bias that aided outside closers. Although the likely race shape up should favor his closing style as Outwork and Danzig Candy are most likely to the flee the gate to go for the early lead, he must navigate traffic with his sustained closing style and his career best TimeformUS Speed Figure gives him no advantage over other rivals in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Dale Romans record with his trainees hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby gives a reason for bettors to use Brody’s Cause in all exotic wagers.

Wagering Strategies:

Here is where your opinion can be profitable or not based on the wagering strategies you use. This is strictly based on your budget. If you cannot afford to play the wagers below I would recommend making a straight WIN bet on our top choice (11) Exaggerator and making a four-horse exacta box using our top four choices which cost only $24 for $2 Wager. For those with a wider budget I will play the same four-horse exacta box but play a trifecta part-wheel looking for (11) EXAGGERATOR to run the race of his life to either win or run second.

Budget Play = Wagering Level under $50

$16 to WIN on (11) EXAGGERATOR

$2 Exacta Box: 11, 13, 17, 20 = $24 for a $2 Wager

Medium Sized Play: Wagering Level at $100

$16 to WIN on (11) EXAGGERATOR

$2 Exacta Box: 11, 13, 17, 20 = $24 for a $2 Wager

Trifecta Box: 11, 13, 17, 19, 20 = $60 for a $1 Wager

Larger Sized Play: Wagering Level Above $100

$2 Exacta Box: 11, 13, 17, 20 = $24 for a $2 Wager

Trifecta Box: 11, 13, 17, 19, 20 = $60 for $1 Wager

Trifecta part-wheel: 11 with 13, 17, 19, 20 with 2, 3, 6, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 = $44 for a $1 Wager

Trifecta part-wheel: 13, 17, 19, 20 with 11 with 2, 3, 6, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 = $22 for a $0.50 Wager

Edited by Natalie Rietkerk