2015 Breeders' Cup Sprint Picks

2015 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks

31st Breeders’ Cup – Keeneland

Date: Saturday, Oct. 31st Post Time: 2:50 PM (ET) Distance: 6 furlongs (dirt) Purse: $1,500,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

Guest Handicapper: Ciara Bowen

The Kings:

1) Runhappy – It’s hard to put Runhappy anywhere besides the top slot here, and justly so. Beyond his fan-friendly connections and his looks, the three-year-old son of Super Saver knows how to run. Even though he is lightly raced, his resume is pleasing to the eye. He raced one time as a two-year-old, managing to win by eight and a quarter lengths despite veering out twice in the stretch and continuing to widen near the wire. At three, his only loss came in his first start of the year, the Gr. 3 LeComte Stakes, where he was bumped around at the start and throughout the race. Following that race, Maria Borell took over as his trainer and the colt has yet to suffer a loss under her. He comes into the Breeders’ Cup Sprint off a solid victory in the Gr. 3 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland. On Travers Day, Runhappy ran faster than Private Zone, which nearly anyone will concede to being quite a feat. Can he repeat that performance? His turn of foot is freakishly fast, especially because he likes running up front and takes the lead from everyone else as if they were simply keeping his seat warm, but it will take all he has to put away this field.

2) Private Zone – No doubt one of the better sprint horses around, but he hasn’t started in two months, which causes some concern among his backers. His last race was the August 29 Gr. 1 Forego at Saratoga, which he took by nearly four lengths without being fully asked. Out of his five races this year, he has yet to finish off the board, and has run in Florida, Kentucky, and New York, showing that he has no set preference of track (i.e. Alpha with Saratoga). In almost every race he has won, he has taken the immediate lead and hasn’t relinquished it.

The Noble:

1) Ivan Fullunovalet – Calvin Borel and ‘Ivan’ have proven to make quite the team this year, with the pair finishing first or second in all six of their starts in 2015. Ivan is moving up in class from his last start, which he won by a solid two and a half lengths. He likes to stalk, and with the race set at six furlongs, Ivan seems to be ready for another big performance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him near the lead coming for home Saturday, or on the lead, but he probably won’t be alone. Runhappy and jockey Edgar Prado will likely be primed to snag the position for themselves if Private Zone doesn’t beat them to it.

The Knights:

1) Holy Boss – Earlier in the year, Holy Boss looked to be one of the more elite sprinters in the sophomore crop, but his performances have begun to decline in his more recent efforts. The Steve Asmussen trainee won the Bachelor, Chick Lang, and Gr. 2 Ambassador before running third to Runhappy in the Gr. 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga in his first Gr. 1 effort. Against Runhappy in the Gr. 3 Phoenix at Keeneland earlier this month, Holy Boss finished fourth, with both his form and speed diminishing. The chestnut colt can set the pace or chase the leaders and I expect him to do the latter on Saturday. I like the Asmussen/Santana combination (which has been hot the past two weeks) and have seen them do unexpected things together, so I wouldn’t necessarily count their horse out.

2) Alsvid – Earlier this year, Alsvid managed to get a win in over Work All Week, who was recently retired. Overall he has poor speed figures, but he did put in a sharp last work and drew the rail. I would consider playing him in my exotics.

3) Wild Dude – He’s had three wins this year, but has only finished off the board once when running at Aqueduct. If he can catch the leaders, I think he stands a chance. He has guts.

4) Masochistic – Highly touted by some, Masochistic has failed to impress me much this year. The five-year-old gelding has put in some good races – don’t get me wrong – but compared to others in this field, I don’t think he holds much appeal. He likes to be close to the lead, but so do many others here. Based on his last two performances, I don’t see him changing form now.

5) Barbados – Runhappy was certainly impressive in his last start, but so was Barbados. The Speightstown colt ran a solid second to Runhappy in the Gr. 3 Phoenix at Keeneland, and he just posted a sharp work on October 24. He has nice late charge.

The Peasants:

1) Limousine Liberal – Despite coming off a second place finish in the Gr. 3 Gallant Bob, and finishing second to Runhappy in the Gr. 1 King’s Bishop before that, I’m placing Limousine Liberal lower on my list than he may be otherwise. With the sheer amount of talent in this race, I think the three-year-old gelding may be in a little over his head. His work on October 24 was sharp, but I just don’t think he has the speed to go with Private Zone, Ivan, and Runhappy.

2) Stallwalkin’ Dude – The five-year-old son of City Place is coming into the Breeders’ Cup off a third place finish and his stalking style may help him.

3) Kobe’s Back – When he breaks well, Kobe’s Back typically runs to form, but he seems to prefer awkward starts to nice ones; in his last three races, he either broke inward or hopped and got off to a slow start. He definitely has plenty of speed, but he seems to be his own worst enemy.

4) Salutos Amigos – In his last race, Salutos Amigos ran a narrow second to the late Rock Fall, but I’m not sure how his form will transfer to Keeneland. His latest work was four furlongs in :49 at Aqueduct and not here.

5) Big Macher – I’m not sure why Big Macher is actually in this race. The gelding hasn’t raced in nearly two months and his trainer’s shipping success record is low. He was a clear winner in his last start, however, and has a top rate jockey aboard.

6) Favorite Tale – Favorite Tale is another horse who has a good record for 2015, but he doesn’t pose much threat in my opinion. He dropped in class for his last start, presumably for a confidence booster, and has moved back up now.

Picks:

Acacia Courtney →

Ciara Bowen → 5-13-6-7

Claudia Lorena → 5-13-14-6

Paul Lo Duca → 5-4-14-13

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