2015 Breeders' Cup Classic Picks

2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks and Analysis

31st Breeders’ Cup – Keeneland

Date: Saturday, Oct. 31st Post Time: 5:35 PM (ET) Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt) Purse: $5,000,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|odds

The Maiden’s Take | Analysis by Claudia Lorena

The King:

1) American Pharoah – After finishing a gallant second in the Travers Stakes, American Pharoah returns to run the final race of his career in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The forecast for Saturday states a 60% chance of rain throughout the afternoon and into the evening. If this pans out, well, we all know how much Pharoah loves rain and slop. I don’t see early speed in this field, so a repeat of the Travers doesn’t seem likely and the lead will be his if he chooses to take it. He comes into the Classic in VERY good form and has been working lights out, looking better than ever. Now that Beholder is out, there’s nothing I want more than to see American Pharoah go out with a bang. Rain or shine, the Triple Crown champion is the horse to beat.

The Nobles:

1) Frosted – Has been training clockwise to switch up his routine and strengthen opposing muscles. It’s unconventional, but very smart, and should have Frosted in top form. Don’t expect him to press a hot pace on like he did in the Travers — that was all Jose Lezcano and it is HIGHLY unlikely that Joel Rosario will be foolish enough to make that mistake. There isn’t much speed in this race, so the son of Tapit could potentially stalk the Triple Crown champ in modest manner. I’d prefer to have him settle in third and let a horse like Smooth Roller do the dirty work.

2) Honor Code – His turn of foot in the Whitney was just as impressive as that of Beholder’s in the Pacific Classic. Honor Code is a closer that DOES NOT toy around. It’s very unlikely that he’ll get the same fast fractions that he did in the Whitney, but he’s still going to get an opportunity to make an aggressive late run. Make a mental note that Javier Castellano opted off of Keen Ice to take the ride on this son of A.P. Indy, so he obviously likes the ridgling’s chances. If I were to pick a horse to upset this year’s Classic, my money’s on Honor Code.

3) Tonalist – The rail shouldn’t be an issue for Tonalist, who has the highest Beyer (109) at this distance now that Beholder has scratched out of the race. He doesn’t need the lead, so I expect to see him drop back and settle into mid-pack with no major issues. This leggy colt is talented and comes off a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That said, this year’s JCGC was anything but mesmerizing, with a short field of six that lacked the class found in this Classic field. My main issue with Tonalist is his inability to prove he can run well on tracks besides Belmont. He has never run at Keeneland and it doesn’t seem rain will come down on Saturday to make things easier for the Christophe Clement trained colt who prefers a sloppy track. Let’s be real, even if it did rain, there’s no way he’d be able to catch American Pharoah in the slop. With rain Tonalist can finish a strong second, and without it, he should still hit the board.

The Knights:

1) Keen Ice – The Travers winner seems to be extremely undermined in this spot, and I don’t think he is getting the respect he deserves. It’s not about beating American Pharoah, but the way Keen Ice won the Travers was very impressive. Saratoga’s track is one of the trickiest to deal with because of its depth and shape. Looking at his past performances, this son of Curlin had been closing up the margin between himself and Pharoah with each and every start following the Kentucky Derby — and no one saw it coming. Do I think he’ll trump this field? I’m hesitant to say no, but I’m also hesitant to say yes. I think it will be very tough, but not impossible if the circumstances are right. Keen Ice has looked spectacular in recent works and Donegal’s confidence in him makes him hard to pass up. I can’t quite put my finger on him, but my gut is telling me not to toss him out.

2) Effinex – He’s a good horse, but he tends to get in his own way. If he can stay straight, he’s game to run well. If he doesn’t and drifts out, perhaps he can still manage to hit the board. He’s never run at Keeneland, but the Classic’s 1 ¼-mile distance seems to be ideal for this son of Mineshaft. Based on his past performances Effinex seems to be due for a big run and gets a nice jump with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the irons.

3) Smooth Roller – With only four career starts since June of this year, Smooth Roller is the least experienced of the bunch, but don’t let that fool you. This 4-year-old gelding comes off a 5 ¼ length win in the Gr.1 Awesome Again, where he scored an impressive 111 Beyer against a very decent field. Bayern and Hoppertunity are no American Pharoah and Beholder, but the way this horse put the field away is something to take note of. He’s fast, he’s got kick and he comes into the Classic lightly raced. The latter may be an upside for him, but it may also be what causes him to fall victim. This field is very strong and Smooth Roller’s running style is a cause for concern. Attempting to set the pace will likely get the best of him. Hands down, the wild card in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The Peasants:

1) Hard Aces – This son of Hard Spun has run this distance on three separate occasions. In June, Hard Aces got the best of Hoppertunity by a nose in the Santa Anita Gold Cup, and I strongly suggest you watch the replay. The John Sadler runner was ALL OUT and the best he could put up, Beyer-wise, was a 99. Now, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — his stride is short and lacks reach. A short stride expends energy at a much faster rate than a long, flowing stride. I am not saying Hard Aces is physically unsound, but his conformation prevents him from covering ground efficiently. If he’s not on the rail saving ground, he’s going to have a tough time. 25 career starts make this 5-year-old the most experienced in the field, but his 102 Beyer at the distance makes him the slowest next to Frosted, who is in his prime, and, in my opinion, is much more talented.

2) Gleneagles – The Irish-bred by Galileo can run on turf, but has yet to run on dirt. Because of this, Gleneagles falls into the peasants category. He has a lot to prove before I put my money on him.

Picks

Acacia Courtney → 4-3-1-7

Ciara Bowen → 4-3-9-1

Claudia Lorena → 4-9-3-2 or 4-9-3-1

Paul Lo Duca → 4-1-9-3

Follow Claudia on Twitter --> @Claudia_WMS